He went on to warn that russias military intervention will add fuel to the fire in syria and predicted that it will propel the terrorists to divert greater forces to combat the russians, and that russian military attacks in syria will bring it to a situation that is. Iran was there first, but its intervention took different forms. Occasional paper understanding irans role in the syrian conflict. Setting aside the insanity of actually threatening to attack russia in military terms, in legal terms the empire has no mandate to declare such a zone while russia is standing on 100% legal grounds should she declare one. Mar 14, 2016 russias military action in syria timeline. Explaining alignment with a regime in crisis international affairs, july 20. No state, be it arab or foreign, has sent experts and fighters against the syrian. Week two of the russian military intervention in syria options for daesh, the empire and russia. Ripley looks at the implication of this experience for future russian military interventions in other conflict zones. The russian approach to military intervention and the syria. Pdf russian intervention in syria objectives and results.
A russian su34 dropping a kab500se guided bomb during a bombing mission over syria. The main goal was to examine how the gulf perceives irans longterm interests in syria, in comparison to those of russia especially following moscows military intervention in the autumn of 2015, and. Jan, 2017 in september 2015, russia intervened militarily in syria in support of the syrian government. Oct 21, 2015 russia seems set to build a much larger base in syria, signaling the intent for a permanent military presence, and perhaps a separate military command to be deployed there. The effects of russian intervention in the syria crisis gsdrc. Russia has begun its military intervention in syria, deploying an aerial contingent to a permanent syrian base, in order to launch attacks against isis and islamist rebels. Russian military intervention in the syrian civil war. In russia itself, the gesture has invited further radicalization, while raising concerns among the countrys own muslims, the vast majority of whom are peaceful. The effects of the intervention are significant, and are both countryspecific, inside. What is interesting in these rumors is that they appear to come from two very different sources. An end to syrias conflict seems unlikely in the near term, as a number of obstacles on and off the battlefield have stymied international diplomatic. Russian military intervention in syria october 15, 2015 russia, a longtime military ally of syria, recently amplified its role in the syrian civil war by sending additional military units to the region and mounting a bombing campaign in support of embattled syrian president bashar alassad. Russian military intervention in syria analysis eurasia. The russian approach to military intervention and the.
Read part 1 of this policywatch, which discussed russias declining military capabilities and how they might affect the kremlins policies in syria, ukraine, and elsewhere russia appears to have begun a significant, direct military intervention in syria. Sep 05, 2015 russia increases military intervention in syria. The effects of russian intervention in the syria crisis 3 overview in springsummer 2015, russia and iran pursued an initiative for highlevel international talks, aimed at keeping president bashar alassad or at least elements of his regime in place as part of a political transition in syria. Russia the washington institute for near east policy. The evolution of russias military operation in syria. Pdf what russias military intervention in syria means. Russia continues to send military weapons for the assad regime while. Humanitarian relief is the provision of nonmilitary aid such as water, food, medicine, clothing, blankets etc. Apr 12, 2018 with syrian forces forewarned, dispersed and under russian protection, western strikes will have to concentrate on syria s fixed military facilities bombing runways, destroying buildings and.
The recent history of facts on the ground created by u. Russias air campaign in syria, along with a ground offensive led by the regime of bashar alassad, are shedding light on moscows military and political. In september 2015, russia intervened militarily in syria in support of the syrian government. Part of the foreign involvement in the syrian civil war, and the military intervention against isil. Its operation plan, objectives, and consequences for the wests policies. The observation of this lengthy military campaign made it possible to understand in detail the current capabilities of the russian aerospace. Russias policy on syria after the start of military engagement. Since the start of the russian air strikes on 30 september. Over the next 15 months, russia bolstered the assad government in its efforts to retake large portions.
Russias 2015 military intervention in syrias civil war took many by surprise. Evidently, russias current military intervention in syria is not assads reward for its supportive stance on russian intervention in georgia in 2008. The russian supported offensives have made limited gains against both rebels and the islamic state. This military intervention makes russia a significant player within syria again. Cost of russias military intervention in syria syria. The russian military intervention in syrias civil war, which began in september 2015, sur. From the start of its intervention, the russian military put great effort into creating a c2 network that mirrored the syrian military chain of command. Putins middle east game changer satellite imagery provided by allsource analysis confirms the recent arrival of russian main battle tanks, armored personnel carriers, helicopters, and other military equipment at an airbase in syria s coastal latakia province, indicating that russia has deployed troops inside syria. The effects of russian intervention in the syria crisis. The strategic analysis of the russian intervention takes into account the assessments of the so called arab spring, the situation in syria, the policies of the allies of the assad regime as. Russias intervention in syria has introduced a dangerous new dynamic into an already volatile and complex conflict. Russias policy on syria after the start of military. This is not because of the thorny issues surrounding the viability of such an attack, especially to what extent. The authors of this report assess where and under what conditions moscow could intervene again by analyzing the factors that drive russian decisionmaking on intervention.
Russias military action in syria timeline world news. Sep 30, 2015 putins military intervention in syria, explained. Extensive reporting, including some attributed to u. Russia learns military lessons in syria janes information. Humanitarian intervention is not a use of force, and while it may violate another states sovereignty can invoke the justification of necessity. Sep 30, 2015 8 comments on russian military intervention in syria by gordon m. China has no interest in getting involved militarily in syria, but chinas special envoy for the crisis in syria praised russias military role in the war. The syrian conflict through russian eyes revisited 6 philipp casula, zurich opinion poll russian public opinion on the countrys military engagement in syria 11. Dr allison will be on hand to sign copies of his latest book entitled russia, the west and military intervention, which will be on sale. Russias intervention in the syrian civil war was the first military operation in which these tectonic changes were tested. Apr 08, 2017 russia has already said it will help syria boost its air defences, a clear signal to washington that further intervention carries a serious risk of escalation, particularly as moscow has also. That is an important infrastructure investment by moscow, demonstrating that no matter what happens to assad, russia will have to be reckoned with in syria and can quickly. China has no interest in getting involved militarily in syria, but chinas special envoy for the crisis in syria praised russia s military role in the war.
Russias proactive energy diplomacy in the region helped to eliminate a glut on the oil market, which had previously. He recently published russia, the west and military intervention oxford university press, may 20 and russia and syria. Russia has also managed to save its only truly middle eastern ally, president assad, ensuring russian presence in the middle east for several generations to come. The linked russian politicalmilitary initiative in syria with a bombing campaign. Bagdonas 2012 argues that russias position has little to do with its material interests, such. Read part 1 of this policywatch, which discussed russia s declining military capabilities and how they might affect the kremlins policies in syria, ukraine, and elsewhere russia appears to have begun a significant, direct military intervention in syria. Read part 1 of this policywatch, which discussed russia s declining military capabilities and how they might affect the kremlins policies in syria, ukraine, and elsewhere. The chinese government perceives it as an element of the global fight against terrorism.
Understanding russias intervention in syria rand corporation. Specifically, it aimed to defend and save an embattled ally and secure russian military political assets in syria. Russian military and political intervention in the syrian civil war. Arguably, if the analytical community had more effectively understood russia s interests, objectives, and.
Russian intervention in syria 1 introduction russias military intervention in syria is the only direct military intervention there by a state from outside the region. Syrian opposition reactions to the russian military. To ensure the suc cess of this intervention, moscow worked towards concluding. The observation of this lengthy military campaign made it possible to understand in detail the current capabilities of the russian aerospace forces, based on their equipment, armaments, and tactics, and.
It was the first time that russia had launched major military. The latest intervention in syria, in 2015, marked russias first step beyond its. The deployment and use of russian air forces in syria could be a turningpoint for president bashar alassads regime. Certain analytic discourses have pursued a constructivist approach in analysing russias involvement in syria. Arguably, if the analytical community had more effectively understood russias interests, objectives, and.
Putins military intervention in syria, explained vox. The linked russian politicalmilitary initiative in syria with a bombing campaign from 30 september, support of iranianhezbollahsyrian military ground offensives, and convening of international conferences to try and secure the assad regime has changed the dynamics of the 56month syrian conflict. Pdf the russian military intervention in syria, conducted between september 2015 and march 2016, was one of the crucial moments in the. Analysis of russian military intervention in syria and how regional powers are factoring it in their approach to syria. The deployment and use of russian air forces in syria could be a turningpoint for presi dent bashar alassads regime. It transpires that e the army had previously resisted all the governments requests to intervene in the syrian conflict on the pretext that it could not do so without american support or cover from nato, requirements made impossible by russias military intervention in syria, beginning in september of 2015. The military intervention in syria ultimately rescued its key regional client. In late 2015early 2016, russias military campaign in syria involved two main components. Katz, fairfax analysis russia between diplomacy and military intervention. Pdf the entire concept of the western world to install a moderate opposition government in syria has hopelessly failed. Week two of the russian military intervention in syria. Syria in the aftermath of the russian intervention iemed. China has reacted positively to russias military intervention in syria.
A cheat sheet1 1 causes of the syrian civil war discontent with authoritarianism and assad familys long reign of power in syria since the 1970s syria is 74% sunni, but the assad family is part of a shia sect known as the alawites. Russian military intervention in the syrian civil war wikipedia. Russia s 2015 military intervention in syria s civil war took many by surprise. China has reacted positively to russia s military intervention in syria. Russias military intervention in syria a panel discussion. Jan 24, 2018 eventually, russia hoped its syrian intervention could force washington and its european allies to abandon ukrainerelated sanctions and diplomatic isolation in the interests of achieving a negotiated settlement with russia over syria.
The syrian war is the first serious military campaign since the vietnam war, in which the air forces of two great military powers are. Western attacks will probably try to destroy syrias military command and control system, possibly with bunkerbusting bombs and deep. The russian intervention has already expanded turkeys frontline political. May 12, 2017 what are the implications of russias military intervention in syria for the future of the assad regime, the battle against isis, and usrussian relations. Many in the western policy community were surprised by russias actions. Syria, and in the relationship between countries, communities, and systems. Occasional paper understanding irans role in the syrian. Oct 21, 2015 russias intervention in syria has introduced a dangerous new dynamic into an already volatile and complex conflict. The atlantic council hosts a panel discussion on russian military intervention in syria, including western countries responses and russia s future role in the region. The intervention in syria demonstrated the traditional holistic russian approach, as the campaign has promoted several connected goals. Russian domestic political considerations were also a factor, though their role should not be overstated. Russia managed to achieve several immediate successes. Russia appears to have begun a significant, direct military intervention in syria. Russian intervention in the syrian civil war 2 mark n.
Putins middle east game changer satellite imagery provided by allsource analysis confirms the recent arrival of russian main battle tanks, armored personnel carriers, helicopters, and other military equipment at an airbase in syrias coastal latakia province, indicating that russia has deployed troops inside syria. Syrias crisis and the global response council on foreign. Oct 15, 2015 russian military intervention in syria october 15, 2015 russia, a longtime military ally of syria, recently amplified its role in the syrian civil war by sending additional military units to the region and mounting a bombing campaign in support of embattled syrian president bashar alassad. Russian intervention in syria objectives and results. The syrian war is the first serious military campaign since the vietnam war, in which the. However, the military effects of the intervention are unlikely to be decisive despite extensive bombing.
But a nato military intervention in syria would be a grave mistake. Russian intervention in syria 1 introduction russia s military intervention in syria is the only direct military intervention there by a state from outside the region. Hahn western governments and mass media are putting out reports that russias first air sorties in homs and hama in syria are not targeting isis and that this demonstrates that putin has no intention of fighting jihadists but has intervened in syria to prop up the basar. Specifically, it aimed to defend and save an embattled ally and secure russian militarypolitical assets in syria. Russia and syria oxford academic journals oxford university press. Rather than advancing its selfproclaimed objective of fighting terrorism. What are the implications of russias military intervention in syria for the future of the assad regime, the battle against isis, and usrussian relations. Jan 07, 2018 russia has also managed to save its only truly middle eastern ally, president assad, ensuring russian presence in the middle east for several generations to come. In syria, russias stakes in president bashar alassads regime. Putin warns that russia is ready to to scale up its military intervention in.
Its unanticipated military foray into syria has transformed the civil war there into a proxy. Assad has already agreed to the continued use of russias military bases in syria until at least 2050, crucially including its naval base at tartus. Assad has already agreed to the continued use of russias military bases in syria. Russian intervention in syria air power development centre. This is not because of the thorny issues surrounding the viability of such an attack, especially to what extent it is possible to render the syrian air force impotent or that of placing sufficient number of. Many in the western policy community were surprised by russia s actions.
218 168 729 981 1438 1597 1216 484 1343 1350 518 196 535 375 37 1320 628 696 899 1319 73 90 1020 1160 1183 1364 1146 884 244 1171 1313 945 833 569 848 1186 376 262 1226 962 996 748 1219 755 209